10 Aug 2010

Is the recovery in the UK economy about to hit the buffers?

Today the news was full of doom and gloom as commentators speculated on the likelihood of a so-called 'double dip' in the economy. Certainly didn't help to cheer one up, especially as here in Colchester the heavens opened up and we saw more rain in a few hours than the whole of July (at least it seemed like that - not seen the official figures yet but if I was a betting man I'd lay a fiver on it).

So, will house prices fall, will inflation rise, will unemployment rise, will the pound crash against the dollar and the euro, will banks loosen the restraints on lending to businesses? So many uncertainties that its enough to make a grown man tremble. However, if you are a small businessman or businesswoman then its important to have a positive attitude. After all, the entrepreneurial spirit means taking risks when others run for the bunkers and hunker down until the storm clouds have passed.

If you are in business and you are not running a company of thousands of employees then you are crucial to the economy and any hope of meaningful recovery. After all, businesses of less than 20 employees make up about 97% of firms in the UK. In fact 95% of firms employ less than 5 people. 3 million are sole proprietors and 462,000 are partnerships. Small firms account for over 50% of the economic activity in the UK. Amazingly, over 2 million people run their businesses from home - so I guess I am one in 2 million!

So, its down to us folks to get things working and get this country back onto its feet. Question is, are we up to and what is the government doing to help us?

Firstly, lets take a look at that second part. The new government's first budget introduced some good news for small enterprises. The move to reduce the Small Companies Tax Rate to 20 per cent is welcomed and will help over 850,000 small firms. The Government also announced it will extend the Enterprise Finance Guarantee which was introduced following calls from the Federation of Small Businesses and will help many small firms who have problems in obtaining credit.

However, there were also some negative measures. The rise in VAT to 20% will hit business and is likely to hit many small businesses, especially those in the high street. In my view there will be a rush to the stores in the run-up to Christmas and in the first three days of the New Year as a result of the rise coming in on 4 Jan 2011. After that I reckon there will be a slump in demand. How long that lasts depends on other things such as consumer confidence. If job losses through the proposed cuts in the public sector start to bite and if house prices fall we may well see a real slump happen.

As to whether the small business sector is up to the task of turning things around, I personally believe that the sector has become better than ever at finding where the opportunities lie and of taking advantage of every opportunity, whether or not the government of the day helps or gets in the way. With the internet its much easier to find opportunities and to grow your business. Being creative is very important and being prepared to reach out to others across the globe, finding partners when maybe years ago, before the internet, it was much harder to this.Then you had to travel more and meet possible partners. Now you can do more from your desk and using the internet its possible to sign contracts without even picking up a phone. That's how I started my business of and its how I do most of my business, both in terms of finding partners and in terms of dealing with customers.

Remember, your future is in your own hands (as much as its anyone's) and the opportunities are there, you just need to find them and grasp them with all you might. No-one is going to hand things on a plate to you, so rise up and accept the challenge.
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